As I watched the 2006 NFL season unfold, I couldn't help but notice how football experts jumped on the bandwagon of whatever team was hot at the moment. For the first half of the season, the Bears were clearly the NFL's darlings. When they cooled off, the Dallas Cowboys got hot for a few weeks, and experts decided they were the team to beat en route to the Super Bowl. When they ran into problems, everone jumped on the the Philadelphia Eagles' bandwagon because they won five games in a row with backup QB Jeff Garcia.
Now the "team du jour" appears to be the New Orleans Saints, whom many football experts are picking to win today's NFC title game against the Chicago Bears. To hear the ESPN analysts talk, no one is giving the Bears a chance to win today, except perhaps former Bears' coach Mike Ditka. And the scores they're coming up with aren't even close -- 31-17 is common.
If I'm coach Lovie Smith, I'm using these "expert analyses" as psychological ammunition for the Bears. The "nobody believes in us" "we're the underdogs" mindset could actually help the Bears prepare mentally for this game. Last week, a couple of local fans put a sign up near the Bears' practice field that read, "Play Angry." With the Bears clearly underdogs in this game, I'd say they have plenty of reason to play angry today.
The experts aren't giving the Bears defense much of a chance against the Saints. Sure, their offense is very good and has played consistently all season long. But although the Bears have had some problems defensively, they do manage to make big plays when they need to. They bend, but do not break. I think we will see the same thing in today's NFC title game.
Weather will also be a factor. As I write this post, it is snowing in Chicago, and combined with 20-degree temperatures, it could create some unstable footing on the field. The Bears' running backs,Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson, have played in this kind of weather before, but what about the Saints' Reggie Bush? Having played for USC and then indoors in the Superdome this season, one wonders if he has been exposed to these conditions. It could slow him down enough for the Bears to catch him.
For the Bears to win today, they will need to establish their running game early and consistently. If the Saints have one area of weakness, it is their run defense, which was ranked 23rd during the regular season. This game will be much closer than the experts are predicting. So close, in fact, that a field goal will decide the game, and a special teams play will be the turning point. My prediction: Bears 23, Saints 20
(Yes, this means I am reversing my previous prediction of the Bears not going to the Super Bowl.)
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