Is it possible to predict the number of Olympic medals a country will win in Vancouver?
Daniel Johnson, an economics professor at Colorado College, uses a formula containing several economic variables to predict how many medals each country will win. He knows nothing about the sports or the athletes competing. It’s all pure economics, based on a country’s per-capita income, the nation’s population, its political structure and the home-field advantage for hosting the Games or living nearby.
And Johnson has been uncannily accurate. Over the past five summer and winter Olympic Games, Johnson has a 94 percent accuracy rating in actual medal counts and 87 percent in gold medal counts.
For the upcoming Vancouver Games, Johnson says Canada will lead all countries with 27 total medals and five gold, benefiting from the home-field advantage. The U.S. will be a close second with 26 total medals and five gold medals. (The U.S. grabbed nine gold medals in Torino in 2006.)
The five gold medals that Johnson predicts for the U.S. seems a bit understated. The U.S. should benefit by being a neighboring country to Canada and will likely have a strong contingent of supporters at the competitions, which could boost athletes’ performances. Skier Lindsay Vonn is favored to win gold in two of the four events she’ll be participating in, as well as speed skater Shani Davis. Snowboarder Shaun White should be a lock for gold in the half-pipe, and short-track Apolo Ono should bring in one or two gold in his events. That’s seven gold medals there. Add to that any number of athletes who are medal contenders who could win gold, and the U.S. could easily win eight or 10 gold medals.
I’m curious to see how Johnson’s predictions pan out during the Vancouver Games. Stay tuned.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Friday, January 08, 2010
Lovie Smith Saved by His Players
While many Bears fans were unhappy that coach Lovie Smith was not among the personnel let go by the organization earlier this week, I think the ownership made the right decision.
Letting go of Ron Turner was long overdue. While I’m sure he is a capable offensive coordinator, I don’t think he had a clear vision of what he wanted to accomplish with the Bears’ offense, nor did he have the most talented players to work with. It is clearly time to bring on someone else on board who can look at things with a fresh eye.
On the other hand, Smith can thank his players for keeping his job. The players rallied to win the final two games of the season to finish 7-9, and many of them spoke out in his favor in the days leading up to Tuesday’s purge. Sometimes as fans, we are so focused on seeing results on the field that we overlook the importance of the relationship between a coach and his players off of it.
Firing Lovie would have hurt this team more than it would have helped them, especially in terms of morale and rapport. Knowing how much the players respected their head coach was, I’m sure, a key factor in their decision to keep him on board. While I’m sure both Lovie Smith and Jerry Angelo were given ultimatums – “win or else” – I predict that both will be part of this team a year from now, and fans will be grateful that Smtih wasn't fired. I expect the Bears to be rejuvenated as a result of some of the changes in the offensive coaching staff, and that should help them perform better overall. Look for the 2010 season to be a big improvement over 2009.
Letting go of Ron Turner was long overdue. While I’m sure he is a capable offensive coordinator, I don’t think he had a clear vision of what he wanted to accomplish with the Bears’ offense, nor did he have the most talented players to work with. It is clearly time to bring on someone else on board who can look at things with a fresh eye.
On the other hand, Smith can thank his players for keeping his job. The players rallied to win the final two games of the season to finish 7-9, and many of them spoke out in his favor in the days leading up to Tuesday’s purge. Sometimes as fans, we are so focused on seeing results on the field that we overlook the importance of the relationship between a coach and his players off of it.
Firing Lovie would have hurt this team more than it would have helped them, especially in terms of morale and rapport. Knowing how much the players respected their head coach was, I’m sure, a key factor in their decision to keep him on board. While I’m sure both Lovie Smith and Jerry Angelo were given ultimatums – “win or else” – I predict that both will be part of this team a year from now, and fans will be grateful that Smtih wasn't fired. I expect the Bears to be rejuvenated as a result of some of the changes in the offensive coaching staff, and that should help them perform better overall. Look for the 2010 season to be a big improvement over 2009.
Monday, January 04, 2010
Is There Any Love Left for Lovie?
It may be a matter of days, or even hours, before we all know the fate of Bears’ head coach Lovie Smith. In recent weeks, Smith’s popularity has dropped to an all-time low. He has quickly lost favor with fans over the team’s dismal performance this season, which ended yesterday with a 7-9 record, despite beating the Detroit Lions 37-23. Not exactly what the fans had expected at the start of the season and not after the Bears traded QB Kyle Orton to Denver for Jay Cutler last April
While fans are disappointed, the players continue to support and praise their coach (see this Tribune story). But is that enough to keep Lovie here?
While most folks want and expect a complete overhaul of the coaching staff, I think GM Jerry Angelo will decide to keep Smith for one more season, if anything because it may be more costly to replace him. It will mean another transitional year of learning to adapt to a new coaching style, and I’m not sure Angelo wants to go in that direction – yet.
However, I think other staffing changes will be made, including the firing of offensive coordinator Ron Turner, who hasn’t exactly charmed fans with his offensive ingenuity. I also think several other coaches and assistants will be fired.
Stay tuned. The Lovie watch begins.
While fans are disappointed, the players continue to support and praise their coach (see this Tribune story). But is that enough to keep Lovie here?
While most folks want and expect a complete overhaul of the coaching staff, I think GM Jerry Angelo will decide to keep Smith for one more season, if anything because it may be more costly to replace him. It will mean another transitional year of learning to adapt to a new coaching style, and I’m not sure Angelo wants to go in that direction – yet.
However, I think other staffing changes will be made, including the firing of offensive coordinator Ron Turner, who hasn’t exactly charmed fans with his offensive ingenuity. I also think several other coaches and assistants will be fired.
Stay tuned. The Lovie watch begins.
Five Things to Look Forward to in 2010
Happy New Year! The holidays have come and gone, but there’s still plenty to look forward to in the coming year. Here are five sports events I’m looking forward to watching in 2010.
1. Blackhawks Stanley Cup run — The way the Hawks are playing lately, winning eight of their last 10 games and currently sitting atop their conference standings with 61 points, you have to believe this is their year to make it to the Stanley Cup finals.
2. White Sox starting rotation — While most of the lineup and bullpen is still a big question mark, the White Sox starting rotation of Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Freddie Garcia makes me yearn for the start of the baseball season.
3. Winter Olympics in Vancouver — The Olympic Games are one of my favorite sports events, and this year is no exception. Several athletes will be worth watching, including: skier Lindsay Vonn, who could medal in four of the five alpine ski events she’s participating in; Apolo Ono, who could surpass Bonnie Blair in number of Olympic medals won, speed skater Shani Davis, who could win several medals, and figure skater Evan Lysacek, the current world champion who will challenge a very deep men’s field for a gold medal.
4. Illinois colleges in NCAA/NIT post-season play — Illinois, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Loyola (Chicago) and Northwestern are among the state-based schools with winning records in college basketball. Look for most, if not all of them, to be involved in either the NCAA or NIT tournaments.
5. Better performances by the Chicago Bears — After a disappointing 7-9 season, the Bears can only get better, right? Give Cutler another year in the Bears’ organization, with a new offensive coordinator who can create a game plan that will capitalize on Cutler’s talents. Give him a stronger, faster offensive line and better, faster receivers. Then watch this team take off in 2010.
1. Blackhawks Stanley Cup run — The way the Hawks are playing lately, winning eight of their last 10 games and currently sitting atop their conference standings with 61 points, you have to believe this is their year to make it to the Stanley Cup finals.
2. White Sox starting rotation — While most of the lineup and bullpen is still a big question mark, the White Sox starting rotation of Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Freddie Garcia makes me yearn for the start of the baseball season.
3. Winter Olympics in Vancouver — The Olympic Games are one of my favorite sports events, and this year is no exception. Several athletes will be worth watching, including: skier Lindsay Vonn, who could medal in four of the five alpine ski events she’s participating in; Apolo Ono, who could surpass Bonnie Blair in number of Olympic medals won, speed skater Shani Davis, who could win several medals, and figure skater Evan Lysacek, the current world champion who will challenge a very deep men’s field for a gold medal.
4. Illinois colleges in NCAA/NIT post-season play — Illinois, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Loyola (Chicago) and Northwestern are among the state-based schools with winning records in college basketball. Look for most, if not all of them, to be involved in either the NCAA or NIT tournaments.
5. Better performances by the Chicago Bears — After a disappointing 7-9 season, the Bears can only get better, right? Give Cutler another year in the Bears’ organization, with a new offensive coordinator who can create a game plan that will capitalize on Cutler’s talents. Give him a stronger, faster offensive line and better, faster receivers. Then watch this team take off in 2010.
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