Economist Predicts Olympic Medals

Is it possible to predict the number of Olympic medals a country will win in Vancouver?

Daniel Johnson, an economics professor at Colorado College, uses a formula containing several economic variables to predict how many medals each country will win. He knows nothing about the sports or the athletes competing. It’s all pure economics, based on a country’s per-capita income, the nation’s population, its political structure and the home-field advantage for hosting the Games or living nearby.

And Johnson has been uncannily accurate. Over the past five summer and winter Olympic Games, Johnson has a 94 percent accuracy rating in actual medal counts and 87 percent in gold medal counts.

For the upcoming Vancouver Games, Johnson says Canada will lead all countries with 27 total medals and five gold, benefiting from the home-field advantage. The U.S. will be a close second with 26 total medals and five gold medals. (The U.S. grabbed nine gold medals in Torino in 2006.)

The five gold medals that Johnson predicts for the U.S. seems a bit understated. The U.S. should benefit by being a neighboring country to Canada and will likely have a strong contingent of supporters at the competitions, which could boost athletes’ performances. Skier Lindsay Vonn is favored to win gold in two of the four events she’ll be participating in, as well as speed skater Shani Davis. Snowboarder Shaun White should be a lock for gold in the half-pipe, and short-track Apolo Ono should bring in one or two gold in his events. That’s seven gold medals there. Add to that any number of athletes who are medal contenders who could win gold, and the U.S. could easily win eight or 10 gold medals.

I’m curious to see how Johnson’s predictions pan out during the Vancouver Games. Stay tuned.